So far it’s been a pretty good year … if you’re a Husker football fan or a fan of Lake McConaughy.
The Huskers recently re-entered the Top 10 rankings (according to the AP and Coaches polls) for the first time in several years and inflows into Lake McConaughy also cracked the top 10, finishing the water year (Oct. 1, 2015 to Sept. 30, 2016) at number seven.
The (unofficial) total of 1,665,983 acre-feet (a-f) was 344,000 more than last year (2014-15) and 961,000 a-f behind the all-time inflow record of more than 2.6 million a-f set during the 2010-11 water year.
Still, this year’s mark was well above the historic median of 1,029,110 a-f and the historic average inflow of 916,900 a-f. That’s good news for the water supply in Nebraska.
If you just look at the last 30 years as a measuring stick, the recently ended water year was the second highest during that period.
Interestingly, since 2009-10 Lake McConaughy has experienced four of the 12 highest inflow years on record. Conversely, since 2000-01, we’ve seen the six LOWEST inflow totals ever, as well as the 8th and 9th lowest inflow years.
So if you’re looking for a trend, it might be along the lines of “feast or famine” over the past 16 years.
What to expect during the new water year? It appears that we’ll have to wait and see.
The good news might be that the La Niña weather pattern that was expected to follow the recently ended El Nino cycle has seemingly failed to materialize. According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, La Nina cycles are typically characterized by below normal precipitation in the Central Rockies and the Great Plains. If it’s not a factor this year, winter and spring weather – and particularly snowfall and spring rainfall – are a coin flip, with equal chances of above or normal precipitation during the first part of 2017.
Yep, we’ll just have to wait and see.
(Note: The author is NOT a meteorologist, but does like to watch the weather forecasts on TV.)